Focus in the US Presidential election lately has been on John McCain's new rabbit punching, eye gouging persona and the apparent boost in the polls that has given him. Depending on which national poll you look at, Obama is still out in front or McCain's strategy has worked and the candidates are now too close to call or McCain has even taken a slight lead (albeit briefly).
This is bad news for Obamafans, used to double digit poll leads. National polls, however, are irrelevant as the election will be decided on a small number of swing states. It should be remembered that only 3 states, all small, switched sides between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico). When the latest polling in the 10 most important swing states is analysed, you can see that Obama supporters have no room for complacency, with only Ohio, Virginia and Colorado predicted to switch sides this time:
California (55 electoral votes): 15.3% lead for Obama
Florida (27): 1.6% for McCain
Pennsylvania (21): 7.4% for Obama
Ohio (20): 0.5% for Obama
Michigan (17): 4.3% for Obama
N Carolina (15): 3.7% for McCain
Virginia (13): 1.0% for Obama
Missouri (11): 2.0% for McCain
Minnesota (10): 5.3% for Obama
Colorado (9): 1.7% for Obama
This is bad news for Obamafans, used to double digit poll leads. National polls, however, are irrelevant as the election will be decided on a small number of swing states. It should be remembered that only 3 states, all small, switched sides between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico). When the latest polling in the 10 most important swing states is analysed, you can see that Obama supporters have no room for complacency, with only Ohio, Virginia and Colorado predicted to switch sides this time:
California (55 electoral votes): 15.3% lead for Obama
Florida (27): 1.6% for McCain
Pennsylvania (21): 7.4% for Obama
Ohio (20): 0.5% for Obama
Michigan (17): 4.3% for Obama
N Carolina (15): 3.7% for McCain
Virginia (13): 1.0% for Obama
Missouri (11): 2.0% for McCain
Minnesota (10): 5.3% for Obama
Colorado (9): 1.7% for Obama
[source: RealClearPolitics]
There is good news and bad news for Obama in this. The good: California looks in the bag (it probably always was but Hispanic voters coming out for Obama has sealed it). The gap has narrowed in Florida to the point where this vital state could go either way (again). Pennsylvania, an absolute must hold, looks solid. Ohio, Republican last time (just) is up for grabs.
There is good news and bad news for Obama in this. The good: California looks in the bag (it probably always was but Hispanic voters coming out for Obama has sealed it). The gap has narrowed in Florida to the point where this vital state could go either way (again). Pennsylvania, an absolute must hold, looks solid. Ohio, Republican last time (just) is up for grabs.
The bad news is that John McCain has narrowed the gap almost across the board over the last couple of months. Obama has his nose in front where it matters but it really is very close in all but a few swing states. Obama's deeper pockets will help him sustain the fight in what is a large number of states that could potentially swing this time or, at least, force the Republicans to spend time and money defending supposedly safe seats. Vice-presidential candidates will be announced soon - expect the candidates to pick the running mates that can help them most in the marginal states. McCain, as expected, is making a fight of it - this is going to be another tight race.
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1 comments:
Hopefully we don't have another mix up in the polls in Florida. The state that likes to alter all elections.
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