US Election: Put your money on red as the form book goes out the window

Something strange is in the US electoral air this year. The race for the Presidency has taken several unexpected twists and turns that few would have predicted a year ago. In any normal election year, this race would be virtually impossible for the Democrats to lose, given their double digit starting lead in the polls. The US electorate should just be waiting to deliver a kick to the backside of the Republican Party as payback for the numerous ills unleashed on its watch: the loss of standing in the eyes of the world, the carnage in Iraq, the sub-prime debacle, a spluttering economy and the polarisation between rich and poor, to name but a few.

And yet....and yet. Unprecedented events are occuring. The US has just witnessed the most extraordinary race for the Democratic nomination, the likes of which has not been seen before. A black man versus a woman. A vicious mud-slinging campaign. A race that just would not end. The defeat of the previously unstoppable Clinton political machine.

The race has, however, now ended and the Democrats have themselves an inspirational orator standing on a platform for “change”. A charismatic, youthful politician promising a break with the past and to heal the divisions in American society. Senator Obama, young and black though he is, should be declared the next President of the United States come November. He is a nearly 2 to 1 odds on favourite at the bookies.

Whomever the Republicans chose as their nominee would have had it all to do. Senator McCain, however, is no ordinary Republican. A war hero and straight talker, he made his name as a maverick Congressman prepared to challenge his own party over such matters as campaign finance and pork barrel spending (the practice of tacking on to legislation additional unrelated federal expenditure for local projects in order to secure congressional support for the legislation....google the infamous ‘Alaskan bridge to nowhere’ as an example).

He possesses genuine cross-party appeal, being estranged from the evangelist wing of the Republican Party’s traditional support base, is experienced and comes across well with blue collar, industrial America. He is anti-abortion but is pro-same sex marriage and stem cell funding - his voting record is conservative with a small “c”.

He does have a mountain to climb. But in this strange electoral year, who knows how the election might play out? The voters should not be willing to re-elect a Republican but are they really ready to send a black man into the White House for the first time? The smart money remains on Obama and I, for one, would like to see him win for the message it sends out to the world, amongst other reasons.

However, Senator McCain is a solid candidate who can, uniquely, portray himself as a Republican rebel and, as such, a break from the Bush-dominated Republican Party of old. If he can sell that story to the American public and simultaneously tar Obama as a liberal, elitist, inexperienced ingénue then who knows what further twists this election year may hold. At odds of 2/1 in a 2 horse race in a year when it seems anything can happen....the betting man should put his money on McCain.